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Economic development --- Economic development

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Economic development. --- Developing countries.

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Economic conditions. Economic development

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January 1998 Industrial water pollution stabilizes with economic development, but there is no evidence that it declines. Using new international data, Hettige, Mani, and Wheeler test for an inverse U-shaped, or Kuznets, relationship between industrial water pollution and economic development. They measure the effect of income growth on three proximate determinants of pollution: the share of manufacturing in total output, the sectoral composition of manufacturing, and the intensity (per unit of output) of industrial pollution at the end of pipe. They find that the manufacturing share of output follows a Kuznets-type trajectory, but the other two determinants do not. Sectoral composition gets cleaner through middle-income status and then stabilizes. At the end of pipe, pollution intensity declines strongly with income. The authors attribute this partly to stricter regulation as income increases and partly to pollution-labor complementarity in production. When they combine the three relationships, they do not find a Kuznets relationship. Instead, total industrial water pollution rises rapidly through middle-income status and remains roughly constant thereafter. To explore the implications of their findings, the authors simulate recent trends in industrial water pollution for industrial economies in the OECD, the newly industrialized countries, Asian developing countries, and ex-COMECON economies. They find roughly stable emissions in the OECD and ex-COMECON economies, moderate increases in the newly industrialized countries, and rapidly growing pollution in the Asian developing countries. Their estimates for the 1980s suggest that Asian developing countries displaced the OECD economies as the greatest generators of industrial water pollution. Generally, however, the negative feedback from economic development to pollution intensity was sufficient to hold total world pollution growth to about 15 percent over the 12-year sample period. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the economics of industrial pollution control in developing countries. The study was funded by the Research Support Budget under the research project The Economics of Industrial Pollution Control in Developing Countries (RPO 680-20).

Economic development --- Environmental aspects.

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Economic development. --- Developing countries.